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:

:
:
: 16:34:48 21 2005
: 24 : 2 : 0 : 0 :    

" "

. -

: '

: ' '

: .. 304755440

.. 017533530

1. ............................................................................

... 1

1.1

.............................................................. 1

1.2

....................................................

1.3

..................................................

1.4

...........................................................

1.

1.1

" 1995 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS YEARBOOK " :

.

1.2

:

( , , , IM = f (

. :

D1 -

2 D- . 1990 . . .

:

RM = f ( RR , RY , RE , INF , D1 , D2 )

1.3

RM - ( )

RE - ( " )

RR - ( - % )

INF - ( % )

RY - ( )

D1 - 1974 - 1977

2D - " " .

: [pic] [pic] [pic]

[pic] [pic]

[pic]

[pic]

1.4

. , . . , " , , . . , . . . ( ) . . 3 . " " . . .

2.

2.1

:

[pic]

:

1.[pic] [pic][pic]

2. [pic]

:

[pic]

( ' ) :

RM. = 5.990127 - 1.1724756 * RE + 1.9601755 * RR + 1.5643704 * INF+

+ 0.3055253 * RY - 9. 8921502 * D1 - 8.3802476 * D2

" : 0.956625

2.2

: 95% . a = 0.05.

- F .

[pic]

: 0H :

[pic] : c - ( ) . n - ( ' ) . d - .

[pic] -

[pic] - .

n=33 , d = 7 ,a= 0.05 , c = 6 " ( ' )

[pic]

95% 0H , .

3.

3.1

95% .

T .

[pic] : 0H :

[pic]

T . ' "" . C .

[pic]

[pic]

H0, [pic] () , - .

. :

[pic]

:

[pic] " 0.9564 . . . . b2 - T .

[pic]

H0 " b2 .

:

[pic] :

RM=-0.7966953 RE+0.1556901 INF+0.3503278 RY-7.3703343 D1-8.9045264 D2

: [pic]

0H . b0 - 0 . , "" .

:

[pic]

. T .

* b1 :

[pic] 0H - .

* b4 : [pic] 0H .

* b5 :

[pic] 0H - .

* b6 : [pic] .

95% . . 1961-1993 :

[pic]

:

[pic]

1961-1993 :

RM= -0.7695981 RE+0.3521087 RY-7.1427263 D1-8.7903369 D2

4. .

4.1 . , . . T . . . " " . 0.6 . . . . ' : rRE,RY = -0.9143375 rRR,INF = -0.8841962 0.6 . RE - RY RR - INF . ( ) .

4.2 : [pic] - . . : , . , . -. . : ) ) "" , . ' . . : [pic]. "". . RY " . ' . :

[pic] " T : [pic] - 0H b0 . : RY . : [pic] : [pic] " T : - b (): [pic] 0H . 95% . - b : [pic]

[pic]

0H , . " RE. ' " -"2-TAIL

SIG." -"T-STAT.". -RE - RE .

: . .

4.3

:

[pic]

t - t-1 . ( ). . : [pic] DURBIN-WATSON . :

: [pic] 0H : dL > D.W. : dL < D.W.

/
:
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