364 , , : , , , , , , . , , , .
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: 13:37:11 19 2011
: 2 : 2 : 0 : 0 :    

1

- , , , , . . - , , .

: , , , , , . (). - , .

- , , , . .

- , , , . , , , , , .

2

, , , .

2.1

apeoa opaoa ccea () - o cooyoc ocoo yopyx peo pecypco copa, acca, aaa, oe pacpocpae ayao opa c e ee cooa p p ex apeox pee.

pecae coo aey cocay ac opaoo cce ypae pepe. eo ocoeoc ec o a, o oa, coy ee ypee co opa, oeceae pae ce pep c po. apeoe opaoe cce a pepx oy axoc a pax aax coeo pa, o ce: poca ccea yea ax; ccea apeoo oeoc; cce, opepoae a cooae paoo poa pacex oee; ccea apeooo poopoa p.

aa apeoa opaoa ccea ae ceye ee:

opa o ypex ooocx pep eoo x cooa p oppoa apeox yc;

opa o pa ex yco pao cpaeecx oepax pee apeoo eeoc pep a pe;

opa o peyaax ceax apeox cceoa, poox a pep c e oye ooex ax opaoo xapaepa;

ccey opao apeoo opa (c cooae copeex opaox exoo copa ax, x aaa poopoa).

ocyece copa apeoo opa pa oa pacoaa cooecy pecypca:

ceac, oaae aae oac copa, opao aaa opa;

eoecoe oeceee peo pao c opae, a a eo copa opao opa cyece opao a ee aeco;

oopyoae (cea exa, eeo poa opexa, popaoe oeceee, pop, ooe pecppoa opa xoe cceoa).

2.2

aecee eo copa opa. aecee cceoa a cop, aa eppea ax ye ae a e, o ea oop.

aee apeox cceoax pecae coo eo copa epo apeoo opa o yaeo oee ye ae a pa pya e, ec cya. aee apeoo cceoa oe apaeo a ocee pax ee. o oe cooao a co opa ocpoe oe, cy poep ax, oyex py eoa, c eo oo oo e ooee cee o yaeo oee.

aee ec eca pyoe eoo. opee oo ae aae opo a paa oe pee, e cao aee.

o xapaepy opyae ocao aee oe oe, o oaae, o poecc poxo ececeo ocaoe ( aae, y p aaa), aopaop, .e. pooc cycceo coao cya. eya ae cpyc c oo ayo- eoex, ooax ..

aece cceoa ae oocc: yoe ep, aa poooa poeo eo.

yoe ep aaec oceoaeo aa apoa epepo pecoey py opoco ex oa, oey e py ey ce opeee opao, o o ya o opeeeo poee.

a poooa aaec oee pecoea opeeey cya o p pee, p o o oe coeco oca ce aop apye, oop o pyoocoac p p pee. oa p pee aoo eoa coyec aoo. ae cceoae aapye pooo, pecaee pecoea.

p cooa poeox eoo pecoe oeac opeeee pyee cya aee a o, o pecoe cay ay opa o cee, oopy eooo oy p poee poo opoca, apep, ooceo opee apoo, aoo, oye aex ..

oecee eo copa opa. oecee cceoa oo ooec c poeee pax opoco, ocoax a cooa cpyyppoax opoco apoo a, a oope oeae ooe co pecoeo.

poc aaec cope epo opa ye poo aaa opoco ooceo ypo x a, ooe poyy, peoe oyaecoo oee. poc oe oc cpyypoa ecpyypoa xapaep; epo cyae ce opaaee oea a o e e opoc, o opo - epep aae opoc acoc o oyex oeo.

p poee opoca pya opaaex oe oepac oopaoy, oopa oceoa. epo cyae oyaec a oepe cpe ao py o o apaepa cpoaoo oea pee (cross-sectional study - "oepeoe" yee).

o opo cyae oa a e pya opaaex, aaea ae, eoopao yaec eee opeeeoo epoa pee (longitudinal study - "poooe" yee). ae aee coyc p poee ox apeox cceoa. o cyae aco oop, o coyec ae eo opoca.

2.3

a apea - o opaaoo-ypaeec oye, oo cec oeo ce apeoo eeoc cooec c e p, ee pecypca, opaae. a eo ae oppyec e apea, ocyecec opo pooo oee peyao eeoc p. apeoe a y pe oo, o coepeeo aax poopx oo accope oapo ycy, aacpoa eoe ee, oa opao paccpeoo o pee peae yc, eeapaeo paa coy aoc.

a apea oy accpoac o eoc, acay eoa papao. oy paocpo (oo a o o), cpeecpo (o yx o e) oocpo (o o ec e). pao- cpeecpoe a oee eapoa oepa. oocpoe, a pao, opaac poopoae ee cpe a o epo opeeee opeoce opaa. aaec ae oxa apeox ao. oy oee a a a poy p o eppoa a a c poy, o xoce a c paeo, oce apey. ae a apea oy papaaac o a ocoe opa oeo poa, ypax o poya, oeo pea pyx cy apea, o a epaoao apac opopyc pyooco. a pao, epo cyae apoae eo, pooo cpoo peaa oee peaco, a a ocoaec a oepao opa eocpeceo e cpyypa, oope oea a x peaa. o p o oy oa pyoc c oopae ceee ao pax oeo e cpaeec a. o opo cyae x pyoce oo ea, o oa caec oeeoc opaee poecc apoa oa oeceoc a peya.

ooy ay apea oa cooecye aa cpyypa:

coepae;

eee;

pee;

cyao aa (peooe, poa, aa cpaeecx po, aa ocox oapo, aa opox o);

e apea;

cpae apea;

popa;

cypoae ca;

e;

pace pe yo;

cce opo;

poeyp ece oppe.

aco ae aax, ocex oe pa, oe oapa, ae o ee, px yax, a pao, e poc, coyec cpyypa oee oeo xapaepa.

2.4

oapa oa cocae cepey cpyeo apea. o paaec o, o papaoa ox e, pacpee accopea coepeeoe ce c pooca ycapex e, .e. eeapaeoe opecoe oppoae coo popa pep, ec a aopo oypeococooc a oex oapo, a pep eo a eo pax ca, aopo ycooo eoacoo poca pep.

opoo papaoa a o oac ooe oa oo opee oeae oooc, papaoa cooecye popa apea, cooppoa cooyoc oapo, a oo oe oepa yae, ycpa eeaee oap.

oepae oapo o pecaeo cey eea:

poyoa oa yo cce (poyoe ooee, poyooe appoae, poyooe poae);

popao-accopea oa;

oa ocya oyaee;

apaa cepca oa.

eea oapo o pep c o peoe c:

ooee poy;

oepa epea poy;

ce ycapee poy c pooca;

epca poyoo popa, pacpee cyee poyoo popa.

occ oe cee copoe cpoca eea oapo o c:

pee, cae c opo opoo ap;

pee, cae c aopo ooex cepcx ycy, oaaex opee.

2.5

eoa oa ec o aoee ax aoee x cpyeo apea, o oo opee ypoe ca oapo oppy pecaee o e aax opeee. epe ce oepec o eoepec opaa cae aaa aae e a co oap ycy. oyae ea, oopy oo o ya, - o epa ecoc eo opeoc, .e. paepa yoeope, oopoo o e. poaa ea, o oopo o oo poa, - o epa epe c p, oopy o aeec oy. opao (ypoeo) ey oo peca a ooee, yaaee, ay cyy ee yo ya, o popec opeeeoe oeco oapo ycy. o oyae epecye ae ea opee, o ec cyape apa, cae c popeee opeee oapa. ocoy y aaox oapo cpo cyaa oe pa, oyae, p pox pax ycox, cpec popec oap c ao yeo eo opee.

ea ea opee = ea opee / po oapa.

acoc o cyea, peayeo oap, cpyypa e cey opao:

cpyypa e pep-pooe oapa:


ea pooe = ceecooc ooe + p pooe;

pyypa e ooo opaa:

ea ooo opaa = ea pooe + aaa ooo opaa = ea pooe + (ep opae ooo opaa + p ooo opaa;

cpyypa poo e:

poa ea = ea ooo opaa + opoa aaa = ea ooo opaa + (ep opae poo opo + p poo opo).

ce e, ecye ooe, aoca opay ccey. e oo accpoa o pa paa:

o cepe ocya aoao oo (ooe, poe, ayoe, e a poy cpoeca, ap, eeopoe e);

o cee ecoc peypoa ocyapco (cooe peypyee e);

o ca eoopaoa (e ooe ooe, e oyce, e ooe ay, poe e);

c yeo yco pao (e pao-ca ocaa, e pao-ca opae, e pao-ao ca opae, e pao-ao ca aae, e pao-ca opee);

o ope opaa opo xapaepy eoo opa (e px oao, e pee, e ayoo, e opo, e cpaoe, e pecypao, e peoe, cpee, yee eoe oaae).

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